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Impact Factor : 8.14

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Paper Title: Climate Change Impact Assessment and Flood Risk Evaluation Using Statistical DownScaling Model: A Case Study of Nashik City
Authors Name: Shruti Rajendra Netake , Dr. Shubhada Koranne
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IJRTI_204428
Published Paper Id: IJRTI2505314
Published In: Volume 10 Issue 5, May-2025
DOI:
Abstract: This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns and flood risk in Nashik, a city situated along the banks of the Godavari River in India. Leveraging the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), the research generates localized climate projections under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to assess the future challenges and risks faced by the city. The study utilizes historical data on rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) to calibrate the SDSM model. Future climate projections are then developed for two time periods (2024-2050 and 2051-2099) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, allowing for an in-depth analysis of the potential changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. The results indicate that Nashik is likely to experience a moderate increase in rainfall, particularly during the monsoon season, under both RCP scenarios. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario, representing a high-emission pathway, shows more pronounced changes, including a sharper rise in Tmax and Tmin, suggesting a trend towards hotter and wetter conditions in the long term. These projections have significant implications for urban flood risk, water resource management, and the need for climate-resilient planning and adaptation strategies. Based on these findings, the research provides a comprehensive set of recommendations for Nashik, including upgrading drainage infrastructure, implementing nature-based solutions, and enhancing community awareness and preparedness. The methodological approach and insights from this study can also inform climate adaptation efforts in other flood-prone regions, contributing to the development of more sustainable and resilient urban environments. Overall, this report presents a comprehensive and well-structured analysis of future climate projections and flood risk assessment for Nashik city. The study utilizes a robust methodological approach, combining historical data analysis, state-of-the-art climate modelling techniques, and a thorough validation process to ensure the reliability of the findings.
Keywords: Climate Change, SDSM, Nashik, Flood Risk, RCP Scenarios, Rainfall Projection.
Cite Article: "Climate Change Impact Assessment and Flood Risk Evaluation Using Statistical DownScaling Model: A Case Study of Nashik City", International Journal for Research Trends and Innovation (www.ijrti.org), ISSN:2455-2631, Vol.10, Issue 5, page no.d100-d110, May-2025, Available :http://www.ijrti.org/papers/IJRTI2505314.pdf
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ISSN: 2456-3315 | IMPACT FACTOR: 8.14 Calculated By Google Scholar| ESTD YEAR: 2016
An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 8.14 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator
Publication Details: Published Paper ID: IJRTI2505314
Registration ID:204428
Published In: Volume 10 Issue 5, May-2025
DOI (Digital Object Identifier):
Page No: d100-d110
Country: Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Maharashtra, India
Research Area: Civil Engineering 
Publisher : IJ Publication
Published Paper URL : https://www.ijrti.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJRTI2505314
Published Paper PDF: https://www.ijrti.org/papers/IJRTI2505314
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ISSN: 2456-3315
Impact Factor: 8.14 and ISSN APPROVED, Journal Starting Year (ESTD) : 2016

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